人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正  

The Decomposition of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Revisions of Marshall-Lerner Condition

作　　者：陆前进[1] 李治国[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际金融系 [2]复旦大学管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第4期3-18,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70673011;71173042;70801018);国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD018);教育部后期资助项目(12JHQ030);上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZS010)的资助

摘　　要：根据人民币实际有效汇率的分解,本文重新考察了马歇尔—勒纳条件,认为美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元实际有效汇率中的权重对马歇尔—勒纳条件修正有重要作用。在人民币实际有效汇率贬值的条件下,即使存在J曲线效应,在人民币对美元实际汇率贬值的情况下,J曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证结果显示,修正的马歇尔—勒纳条件成立,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对J曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率贬值,还是人民币对美元实际汇率或美元实际有效汇率贬值,J曲线效应均不显著。This paper decomposes RMB real effective exchange rate and reex- amines the Marshall-Lerner condition. It can be seen that USD real effective ex- change rate elasticity against RMB/USD exchange rate and the RMB＇s weight in the USD effective exchange rate index play an important role in revising the Marshall- Lerner condition. Even if J curve holds under the depreciation of RMB/USD real ef- fective exchange rate, J curve exists or not depends on some certain condition un- der RMB real exchange rate depreciation against the USD. The empirical results re- veal that the revised Marshall-Lerner conditions exist, the devaluation of RMB real exchange rate against the dollar can improve the trade balance, and the devaluation of USD real effective exchange rate may have the negative effects. The empirical studies on J curve show whether RMB real effective exchange rate, or RMB/USD real exchange rate or USD real effective exchange rate is depreciated, J curve effect is not significant.

关 键 词：实际有效汇率 贸易收支 需求弹性 马歇尔——勒纳条件 J曲线 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]