概率统计分析在青岛汛期降水预测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF THE PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS ANALYSIS TO THE PREDICTION OF THE FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION IN QINGDAO

作　　者：陈迪[1] 陈锦年[2,3] 左涛[2,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学数学科学学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国科学院海洋研究所,山东青岛266071 [3]中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点开放实验室,山东青岛266071 [4]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2013年第1期145-152,共8页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q11-02)

摘　　要：本文对青岛地区多年降水量进行统计分析,其中相关分析发现青岛地区汛期降水与前期黑潮区域海气热通量变化存在显著的正相关关系。当前期(超前20个月)黑潮区域海气热通量出现较常年偏多(少)时,后期青岛地区汛期降水将会出现偏多(少)的趋势,具有较好的预测能力。通过回归分析,建立了两者之间的回归方程。对青岛地区2012年汛期降水进行的预测结果表明,青岛汛期降水为正常略偏少。In this paper the statistical analysis of the annual precipitation variations in Qingdao was given. And the correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes and the flood season precipitation in Qingd- ao indicates that there is a positive correlation between air-sea heat fluxes in December in Kuroshio area and the flood season precipitation in Qingdao one year later. When air-sea heat fluxes in the Kuroshio area （20 months lead） are less than in a normal year, the flood season precipitation in Qingdao one year later will be more less. This result has important implications for prediction of the flood season precipi- tation in Qingdao. Based on these results, a linear regression equation between the two is obtained. And it is predicted that the 2012 flood season precipitation in Qingdao will be less than the normal year.

关 键 词：概率统计 汛期降水 黑潮区域 海气热通量 预测 

分 类 号：O21[理学—概率论与数理统计]