基于未确知测度理论的区域灾害风险评价  

Regional Disaster Risk Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

作　　者：王志涛[1,2] 苏经宇[1,2] 王威[2] 马东辉[1,2] 郭小东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2013年第4期548-553,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目资助(2006BAJ06B01)

摘　　要：为了评价区域灾害风险,降低评价过程中的不确定性影响因素,本文基于未确知测度理论,建立了区域灾害风险等级评价和排序模型.分别利用等权和熵计算各影响因素的指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,评价区域灾害风险,并将该方法应用于重庆市40个区域的灾害风险评价.研究结果表明:该模型可综合考虑各种不确定性因素,使得区域灾害风险评价结果更科学合理.To evaluate regional disaster risk and decrease the uncertainty of the factors in the evaluation process, an evaluation method was presented in this paper based on uncertainty measurement theory. The weights for indexes were calculated by entropy weight theory and equal weight, and credible degree recognition criteria were established. The results of risk evaluation could be obtained with the credible degree criteria and this method was applied in the regional disaster risk evaluation for Chongqing city. The results show that this model may consider many kinds of uncertainty facors, so the evaluation result of regional disaster risk is more reasonable.

关 键 词：灾害风险 未确知测度 置信度识别准则 熵权 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]