新疆城市化进程中生态预警研究  

ECOLOGICAL EARLY-WARNING IN THE PROCESS OF URBANIZATION IN XINGJIANG

作　　者：聂春霞[1,2] 刘晏良 甘昶春 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会经济研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委员会,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2013年第3期379-385,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：新疆大学创新管理研究中心项目"城市可持续发展评价研究"(010112C06);新疆社科基金重大研究项目"依托内地省市援疆与提升自我发展能力研究"(10AAJY005)

摘　　要：对新疆城市化进程中的生态环境进行预警研究,目的是在城市化引起生态环境退化之前,以便能及时采取防范措施。构建城市化生态质量评价指标体系和可拓学评价模型,利用灰色预测模型对新疆2010～2014年的生态质量评价指标进行预测,对新疆2005～2014年城市化生态质量进行分析。研究表明:2005～2014年,资源子系统经历改善—恶化—改善的过程,生态子系统先改善后恶化,环境子系统不断改善,总体上,城市化生态质量不断改善。因此,新疆城市化进程中,应当控制人口增长,节约水资源,保证充足的水资源量和生态用水量;节约居民和工矿用地,保护绿洲,提高森林覆盖和森林病虫害防治;不断提高环境污染治理投资,减少工业三废的排放等,使城市化与生态环境耦合系统处于协调状态。Ecological environment early-warning in the process of Xinjiang urbanization was studied in order to take preventive measures before degeneration of ecological qualitaty caused by urbanization.In this study,the index system of ecological quality evaluation and the extenics evaluation model of urbanization were built.Evaluation index of ecological quality in Xinjiang was predicted by the grey forecast model from 2010 to 2014 and the ecological quality from 2005 to 2014 was analyzed.The results showed that each index of ecological environment had the same trend between 2010-2014 and 2005-2009 in Xinjiang.Per capita amount of water resources,proportion of ecological water,controlling rate of forest pest and disease significantly reduced.The other 10 ecological environment quality index was optimized.Then,the ecological environment quality of urbanization in Xinjiang was obtained.The resource subsystem would experience the process of improvement-deterioration-improvement.Ecological subsystem would experience process of improvement after the deterioration.The environment subsystem would continue improvement.In addition,if Xinjiang could control the population growth,the reduction of per capita water resources and proportion of ecological water,we could control the deterioration of ecological system and make optimization on the quality of ecological environment.Therefore,in the process of Xingjiang urbanization in future,we should control population growth and conserve water resources to ensure an adequate amount of water resources and ecological water;save residential and industrial land,protect oasis of Xinjiang;improve forest coverage and control forest pest;continuously increase investment in order to control environment pollution and reduce the discharge of industrial waste.When it is coordinated state on coupling system of urbanization and ecological environment,Xinjiang urbanization will realize sustainable development.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 生态预警 城市化 新疆 可拓学 

分 类 号：X820.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程]