蔬菜批零价格联动性分析  

Linkage analysis of vegetable wholesale and retail prices

作　　者：李桂芹[1] 李圣军[2] 刘敏[3] 杨鑫[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]中国人民大学可持续发展高等研究院,北京100731 [3]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2013年第1期113-118,共6页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：农业部软科学课题项目(201211)

摘　　要：分析2005-01—2011-12的蔬菜批零价格月度数据发现,蔬菜批零价格总体保持了一致的变动态势,两者同期相关系数达0.785 8,但蔬菜零售价格月度平均同比涨幅比批发价格高2.2个百分点,批发价格标准差比零售价格高6个百分点.根据ADL模型(分布滞后模型),在"翘尾因素"作用下,蔬菜批零价格自身12期滞后项的影响系数分别为-0.43和-0.42,零售价格自身1期滞后项的影响系数为0.31,批发价格自身9期滞后项的影响系数为0.38.蔬菜批零价格之间的影响关系呈现出一定的"对称性",依据批发对零售、零售对批发的顺序,同期、9期滞后、12期滞后两者之间的影响系数分别为0.57和1.09,-0.24和-0.32,0.19和0.37.为提高蔬菜批零价格联动性,应提高批零环节的信息化、组织化、一体化水平.Based on the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2011, the article presents an empirical analysis. The results show that vegetable wholesale and retail prices in general remain a consistent trend of changes, and their correlation coefficient over the same period is 0.79, but the monthly average increase of vegetable retail price compared to the same period of last year is 2.2 percent higher than the wholesale price. The standard deviation of wholesale price is percent higher than the retail price. According to ADL model, because of the tail factor, the influence coefficient of vegetable wholesale and retail price themselves of 12 months lag is -0.43 and -0.42 respectively, the influence coefficient of retail price itself of 1 month lag is 0.31, the influence coefficient of wholesale price itself of 9 months lag is 0.38. The relationship between vegetable wholesale price and retail price appears certain ＂ symmetry＂, under the order of wholesale to retail and retail to wholesale, the impact coefficients of the same period, 9 months lag, 12 months lag are O. 57 and 1.09, - 0.24 and - 0.32, 0.19 and 0.37 respectively. In order to improve the linkage between vegetable wholesale and retail price, measures should be taken to increase the information level, organization level and integration level of wholesale and retail sectors.

关 键 词：批零价格 联动性 分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]