从世界工业化、城镇化和农业现代化发展规律探讨中国“三化同步”的标准及发展路径  

A Study on Standards and Development Paths of China's Three Synchronization from Development Law of Industrialization,Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization of World

作　　者：肖红波[1] 王道龙[1] 王济民[2] 陈琼[2] 王瑞波[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2013年第2期133-138,共6页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;中国农业经济学会共同发布的中国农业农村经济发展重大问题研究项目"在工业化;城镇化深度发展中推进农业现代化"(编号:2DDY201101)

摘　　要：加快工业化、城镇化和农业现代化"三化同步"发展是中国"十二·五"时期的一项重大任务。本文采用1961-2009年世界206个国家的相关数据,运用计量模型分析经济发展与"三化"发展之间的关系,确定了"三化同步"的具体标准。研究结果显示,在同等GDP水平下,中国工业化程度高于发达国家,城镇化明显低于发达国家,农业现代化远落后于发达国家,农业投入水平低,土地和劳动生产率较低。中国要实现"三化同步",必须优化产业结构,走新型工业化道路;加快城镇化进程,走资源节约型城镇化道路;加快推进农业现代化,走中国特色农业现代化道路。Accelerating industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization synchronous development is a major task of China＇s ＂12th Five-Year＂ period. This paper, using data of 206 countries from 1961 to 2009 and the method of econometric model, analyzes the relationship between economic development and industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, and then determine specific criteria of the ＂three synchronization＂. The study found that under the same level of GDP, the level of industrialization in China is higher than in developed countries, urbanization is significantly lower than in developed countries, and the modernization of agriculture is far behind the developed countries with the low level of agricultural inputs, land and labor productivity. As a consequence, to achieve three of sync in China, it needs to accomplish new style of industrialization through optimizing the industrial structure; accelerate the urbanization process with resource-saving; speed up agricultural modernization with path of Chinese characteristics agricultural modernization.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 农业现代化 “三化同步” 标准 发展途径 世界经验 

分 类 号：F303.3[经济管理—产业经济] F291.1