基于蒙特卡罗方法的扎龙湿地水环境质量评价  

Evaluation of Water Environment Quality of Zhalong Wetlands based on Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：孙清展[1] 臧淑英[1] 张囡囡[1] 那晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室,哈尔滨师范大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《湿地科学》2013年第1期75-81,共7页Wetland Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41030743);黑龙江省研究生创新科研项目(YJSCX2012-189HLJ)资助

摘　　要：为了简单有效地评价水质状况,建立了蒙特卡罗水质评价模型,对扎龙湿地北部(进水区)、中部(过水区)和南部(出水区)的污染状况进行评价,并与模糊综合评价结果、灰色关联评价结果和内梅罗评价结果进行比较。基于蒙特卡罗(MonteCarlo,MC)法的评价结果表明,扎龙湿地北部、中部和南部总体水质类别都为Ⅱ类,与模糊综合评价法和灰色关联评价法的评价结果一致,也与湿地水质的实际状况相吻合,从而证明了模型的准确性;而其与内梅罗指数法的评价结果差别较大,究其原因,内梅罗指数法评价结果表现为过保护,较严格,从而使得水质评价结果有些脱离实际,内梅罗指数法比较适于评价参评因子值波动比较小、各参评因子都污染较轻的研究区域。从单指标评价类别分析,溶解氧(DO)、Zn、Cd和Cu含量的评价类别一致;扎龙湿地北部和南部总磷(TP)含量的评价类别一致,中部和南部总氮(TN)含量评价类别一致;而Cr含量在3个区中的评价类别都不同,而且从北部、中部到南部逐渐增大,水质变差;另外由于南部地势较低,Cr在南部长期沉积和聚集也是导致其含量过高的重要原因之一。从各类别概率值之和分析,扎龙湿地内部各区隶属于Ⅱ类的概率值之和都是最大的,但隶属于劣Ⅴ类的概率值之和居第二,表明大部分区域水质较好,局部区域水质较差,考虑到水是流动的,水质有由好转差的风险;从北部到南部,隶属于Ⅰ类、Ⅲ类和劣Ⅴ类的概率值之和趋于减小,隶属于Ⅳ类的概率值之和基本未变,隶属于Ⅴ类的概率值之和稍有增加,水质趋于向Ⅱ类转化;从中部到南部,隶属于Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和劣Ⅴ类的概率值之和减小,隶属于Ⅳ类的概率值之和基本未变,水质趋于向Ⅲ类和劣Ⅴ类水质转化。从平均值看,TP含量先减少后增大。扎龙湿地水质的评价结果表明,总体符合Ⅱ类水质及以上的概率约�In order to simple and effective evaluation of water quality,to establish a Monte Carlo model for water quality assessment,applied to evaluate pollution status of the north,central and south parts of Zhalong wetlands,the classification and evaluation results were compared with those by fuzzy comprehensive,gray relational and Nemerow index methods.The results based on Monte Carlo method showed that the water quality of the north,central and south parts of Zhalong wetlands belonged to grade Ⅱ,that was consistent with the results by the fuzzy comprehensive and gray relational methods,and with the actual status of Zhalong wetlands,but different from those by Nemerow index method.From the single index evaluation category,the category of the water quality evaluated by contents of dissolve oxygen （DO）,Zn,Cd and Cu were consistent in north and south parts,by TP content was consistent over the wetlands,by TN content was consistent in central and south parts;but by Cr content was different over the wetlands,the Cr content was gradually increasing from north to central and south parts,because of the topography of south part was bottom,Cr was deposited in the south part for long-term.From the sum of probabilities of all evaluation categories,the water quality of the wetlands belonged to grade Ⅱ that meant the regional water quality was good,but local water quality was poorer,considering the water was flow,water quality had risk that changed into poor.But,the evaluation results of individual index was not optimistic,especially the contents of Cd and DO over the wetlands,and Cr in the south part,should be paid attention to.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗方法 扎龙湿地 水环境质量评价 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]