中国人口生育水平低在何处——基于六普数据的分析  

Why the Total Fertility Rate of 2010 Population Census Is so Low?

作　　者：郭志刚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2013年第2期2-10,126,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国低生育率研究"(项目批准号:12JJD840005)的阶段成果

摘　　要：文章通过对中国第六次人口普查生育数据的分析发现,近年来二孩和多孩的总和生育率比过去略有提高,而六普数据显示的极低生育水平的主要原因在于一孩总和生育率显著下降,其中居住于农村的育龄妇女的一孩生育率下降明显,其原因是近年来农村婚育年龄推迟,导致农村育龄妇女的未婚比例显著提高。在排除了六普育龄妇女孩次结构的影响后,六普的递进生育率水平实际上与2005年的水平相当。所以,从总和生育率降低的孩次特征及其影响原因来看,六普数据显示的低生育水平并不能简单归结为生育漏报。另外,六普数据反映出中国妇女终身生育水平已接近1.5,基本达到了现行生育政策的要求。The total fertility rate of 2010 population census hits a new low record.Careful analysis shows that such a new low fertility rate is mainly resulted from the declined fertility rate in first parity despite the slightly increased fertility rates in second order and over.The total fertility rate at first parity has fallen the most among the rural residents due to remarkably postponed age of marriage or child-bearing,so ever larger percentage of unmarried women in their bearing age helps to depress the fertility rate at first parity.After excluding the parity structural effect of women,measured with the progressive fertility rates,the levels of the 2010 census have kept almost the same as those in year 2005.Therefore,fertility decline in the latest census cannot be simply attributed to under-reported births.In addition,the latest census turns out that the life fertility rate is around 1.5,almost reaching to the requirement of current fertility policy.

关 键 词：六普 生育水平 婚育推迟 终身生育水平 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]