当代中国人口性别结构的演变  

Dynamics of the Population Sex Structure in Contemporary China

作　　者：李树茁[1] 果臻[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院人口与发展研究所 [2]西安交通大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2013年第2期11-20,126,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：第六次全国人口普查研究课题阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章从国际和历史的角度,应用中国六次人口普查数据,分析和总结当代中国人口性别结构的演变历程和特征。运用人口学因素分解的方法,将出生性别比、死亡率性别差异和年龄结构3个驱动因素对人口性别结构演变的影响程度量化分离。研究表明,当代中国人口性别结构的演变特征随着这3个因素的变动而变化:长期的出生性别比偏高对人口性别失衡的累积作用凸显,其对中国人口性别结构失衡的全程性影响将贯穿出生人口队列的整个生命周期;死亡率的性别差异对人口性别结构的影响程度和方向都发生了变化,已不再是构成中国人口性别结构失衡的驱动因素;人口年龄结构的加速老化对改善人口性别结构起着越来越重要的作用。Using data from the six population censuses,this paper mainly reviews trends,patterns and driving forces of the population structure in contemporary China.The paper adopts demographic decomposition method to decompose the dynamics of the population sex ratio into three factors-sex ratio at birth,sex differential in mortality,and population age structure.The results indicate that sex differential in mortality has little influence on high population sex ratio and started to decline the population sex ratio since 2000.The rapid aging of population age structure takes the main effect on declining population sex ratio.Year-after-year skewed sex ratio at birth has become the leverage that raises the population sex ratio in contemporary China,and the high sex ratio at birth would cause life-course effects on the population cohorts since 1980s.

关 键 词：人口性别结构 出生性别比 死亡率性别差异 因素分解法 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]