火炮身管烧蚀磨损的灰色预测模型  

Grey Prediction Model of Gun Barrel Erosion and Wear

作　　者：孟翔飞[1,2] 王昌明[1] 何博侠[1] 陆建山[1] 胡伟伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学机械工程学院,南京210094 [2]常熟理工学院电气与自动化工程学院,江苏常熟215500

出　　处：《四川兵工学报》2013年第3期5-7,11,共4页Journal of Sichuan Ordnance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51175267)

摘　　要：为了准确地获得火炮身管烧蚀磨损量变化情况,根据火炮在发射过程中的膛内特性,分析了火炮身管的烧蚀磨损规律,利用灰色系统理论,结合灰色Verhulst模型特性,提出了一种火炮身管的烧蚀磨损量的预测模型,并在传统的灰色Verhulst模型基础上进行了预测模型的优化。通过对某型火炮身管烧蚀磨损量的数据验证及对比,证明了优化灰色Verhulst模型的准确性,为火炮在实际应用过程中的身管烧蚀磨损的准确预测及火炮身管寿命的判决提供了一种可行的求解方法。In order to accurately obtain erosion and wear change situation of gun barrel, the rules of gun barrel erosion and wear were analyzed, according to the interior characteristics of gun barrel in the process of emission. With the grey system theory and the grey Verhulst model characteristics, this paper presents a grey prediction model of gun barrel erosion and wear which is obtained by optimizing the traditional grey Verhulst model. By comparing erosion and wear data from a certain type of gun barrel, it is proved that the accuracy of grey Verhulst optimization model is higher. So we can conclude that the newly proposed opti- mization model is feasible about predicting the erosion and wear of gun barrel and judging the gun life in the process of practical application.

关 键 词：火炮身管 烧蚀磨损 灰色VERHULST模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：TJ304[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]