股票市场、汇率和房地产对中国货币需求影响的实证分析  

The Empirical Analysis Influence of the Stock Market,the Exchange Rate and the Real Estate on China′s Currency Demand

作　　者：王绍洪[1] 齐子漫[2] 陈灿平[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,成都610065 [2]西南民族大学经济学院,成都610041

出　　处：《软科学》2013年第3期70-75,110,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：2012年度中央专项资金优秀学生培养项目(12ZYXS43);西南民族大学应用经济学学科建设基金项目

摘　　要：研究了股改和汇改后我国货币需求函数的最新变化。结果表明:长期看,利率、收入是我国货币需求最重要的原因,股票市场和商品价格其次,之后房地产和汇率影响较小。但短期内,汇率、股票市场和房地产市场对我国货币需求的影响较大,而商品价格、利率和收入影响较小。随着股改和汇改的冲击效应逐渐变小,我国货币需求会趋向于稳定的长期需求状态。因此,短期内应注重汇率、房地产和股市对我国货币需求的影响,而长期应注重利率和收入的影响。This paper researches the latest changes of China＇s demand money function after the share reform and the ex- change rate reform. Resuh have shown that in the long - term interest rates and income is the most important reason for Chi- na＇s demand money function, the stock market and commodity price is second, the real estate and the exchange rate after less affected. But in the short term, exchange rate, the stock market and real estate market on China＇s monetary demand have greater influence. Commodity prices, interest rates and income have less affected. Gradually become smaller as the share reform and the knock - on effects of the exchange rate reform, Chinese money demand will tend to be stable and long - term needs of the state. Therefore, it should focus on the impact of exchange rates, real estate and the stock market of China＇ s demand for money by short term; the other way, the long - term its have focus on the impact of interest rates and income.

关 键 词：汇改 股改 房地产 VAR 货币需求 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]