基于倒N形库兹涅茨曲线的城市化能耗拐点研究  

Study on the Inflection Points of the Relationship between Urbanization and Energy Consumption from the Perspective of Inverted N-shape Kuznets Curve

作　　者：王子敏[1,2] 范从来[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学经济与管理学院 [2]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期15-21,140,共7页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“城市化气候效应的综合影响评估与对策”(2010CB428506);教育部人文社科基金青年项目“城市化的能耗效应研究--基于空间关联的视角”(12YJC790198)

摘　　要：本文利用2000—2009年的省级面板数据,利用空间计量手段,基于倒N形三次城市化能耗库兹涅茨曲线假设,从全国以及分区域的角度,分析了城市化对于我国人均能耗的影响,计算了相应的能耗拐点。研究认为,从全国来看,由城市化所导致的能耗由降到升的拐点位置出现在城市化率为27.3%的时候,能耗由升到降的拐点位置在城市化率为76.2%的时候。我国目前已经经历了第一个拐点,正趋近于第二个拐点位置。目前的城市化进程处于能耗的迅速上升阶段,且地区间相互影响的存在会使得能耗拐点更早出现。同时研究发现,在不同区域中,城市化对于能耗的影响表现出不同的特征,中、东部地区存在三次能耗库兹涅茨曲线,而西部地区的能耗库兹涅茨曲线特征不显著。Based on the province level panel data from 2000to 2009and on the assumption of inverted N-shape Kuznets curve,this paper tests the effects of urbanization on energy consumption by spatial panel econometrics from different perspectives,and calculates the inflection points of Kuznets curve.For the whole country,the first inflection point of inverted N-shape Kuznets curve occurs when the urbanization rate is 27.3%,and the second inflection point appears when the urbanization rate approaches 76.2%.One of the conclusions is that China already experienced the first inflection point in mid 1980s,and the urbanization process is now in the increasing energy consumption stage with fundamental interacting influences among neighboring regions which enlarge the influences.The other conclusion is that different regions indicate unique energy consumption characteristics,and inverted N-shape Kuznets curve of energy consumption in the central and eastern parts of China exists,though it is not significant in other regions.

关 键 词：城市化 能耗 库兹涅茨曲线 拐点 面板空间计量 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]