区域夜间最小流量的灰色DGM(1，1)动态预测  

Grey DGM(1,1) Dynamic Prediction Model of Regional Minimum Night Flow

作　　者：杨龙[1] 吴珊[1] 董驹萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京市水质科学与水环境恢复工程重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2013年第2期41-44,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：针对一个实际独立计量区域(DMA),根据数据采集与监控系统(SCADA)的数据,采用趋势图和灰色关联度分析了DMA入水口的流量特征。然后基于灰色理论建立4个夜间最小流量的灰色模型,对比分析4个模型的模拟和预测精度,确定离散灰色DGM(1,1)模型是此DMA的夜间最小流量的最佳预测模型。灰色DGM(1,1)新陈代谢模型具有很好的动态预测精度,应用灰色DGM(1,1)新陈代谢区间预测方法分析了此DMA区域的夜间最小流量的阈值,从而为DMA的漏失状况起到预警作用。Taking an actual district metering area （DMA） as an example, and based on the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition, the characteristics of flow discharge at the inlet of DMA are analyzed using the trend chart and grey correlation analysis. Moreover,4 grey models of minimum night flow （MNF） are developed based on the grey theory, which suggests that the grey DGM（1,1） model is the best model for predicting DMA＇s MNF when comparing the accuracies of model and prediction results determined by the 4 models. The grey DGM（1,1） metabolic model has good dynamic prediction accuracy. The threshold of the DMA＇s MNF is obtained using the application of the grey DGM（1,1） metabolic model for interval prediction, which has an early warning effect for assessing the leakage condition of DMA.

关 键 词：DMA 夜间最小流量 灰色DGM(1 1)模型 新陈代谢区间预测 

分 类 号：TU991.33[建筑科学—市政工程]