过度投资对经济周期作用的VEC模型测度  

Research on the VEC Model Measurement of Over-investment Contribution to Economic Cycle

作　　者：陈德胜[1] 卜文辉[2] 宿媛媛[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心,北京100045 [2]西安工业大学,陕西西安710032 [3]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2013年第3期1-8,共8页Contemporary Economic Management

摘　　要：2008年金融危机后,我国采取投资拉动策略复苏经济,然而投资规模是否过度一直是实务界和经济学界争论的焦点。本研究采用实际GDP增长率、资本形成总额、银行部门提供的国内信贷、外国直接投资净流入、市场资本总额和CPI作为系统关键变量,通过VEC模型分析投资对经济周期的影响,根据对未来经济周期指标的预测判断我国目前是否存在过度投资,并提出将投资增长率、信贷增长率、股市市值增长率分别稳定在17%、18%和32%的政策建议。After the financial crisis in 2008, China has adopted the investment-led strategy for economic recovery. However, whether the investment scale is excessive has long been the focus of debate in economic and practical fields. This study, adopting real GDP growth rate, gross capital formation, the domestic credit provided by the banking sector, net inflow of foreign direct investment, market capitalization and CPI as the key system variables, analyzes the impact of investment on economic cycle by using VEC model and judges whether China has excessive investment at present based on the forecasts of future economic cycle index, followed by the policy proposals that the growth rate in investment, credit and value of stock markets should remain stable at 17%, 18% and 32% respectively.

关 键 词：过度投资 经济周期 VEC模型 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]