基于数据融合的农作物生产风险评估新方法  

A New Approach to Assess Crop Yield Risk Based on Mixed Source of Data

作　　者：王克[1] 张峭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2013年第5期1054-1060,共7页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171410);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH20B04)

摘　　要：【目的】解决农作物生产风险传统评估方法中存在的问题,更准确客观地评估农作物生产风险。【方法】利用TRIZ创新理论"九屏幕法"对传统评估方法缺陷进行分析,提出综合利用作物单产和作物灾情信息的农作物生产风险评估新方法,并以东北三省玉米、小麦、花生、稻谷和大豆5种主要作物的生产风险评估为例,对该方法的效果进行了实证检验。【结果】基于单产数据作物风险评估的传统方法低估了作物真实风险水平,低估程度受地理位置、作物种植生产区域布局及作物品种的影响。基于数据融合的生产风险评估方法既可以准确评估出作物生产风险水平、又可以对具体灾害引致的作物生产风险进行评估。【结论】基于数据融合的生产风险评估新方法切实可行,且较传统方法具有明显的优势。[ Objective ] The objective of this study is to address the defects of conventional crop risk assessment approach and to assess the crop yield risk more accurately. [ Method] A new approach based on mixed source of data has been proposed and used to assess the yield risk for maize, wheat, peanut, rice and soybean of Northeast （NE） China in this paper. [Result] It is found that the traditional approach based on yield data does underestimate the real risk of farmers＇ and the bias magnitude are influenced by the crop varieties and planting location. The proposed approach can not only assess the crop yield risk accurately but also can assess the crop risk due to specific disaster. [Conclusion] The proposed approach to assess crop yield risk is flexible and has more advantage than the traditional ones.

关 键 词：生产风险 风险评估 农业灾情 数据融合 方法 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F224