近50年气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响分析  

Analysis of Impact on China Wheat Potential Productivity of Climate Change During 1961-2010

作　　者：田展[1] 梁卓然[1] 史军[1] Gunter Fisher 顾婷婷[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) [3]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第9期61-69,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响下的中国农业生态系统承载力研究"(40921140410);"多尺度的数据融合与跨尺度的模型模拟--气候变化对作物生产力的影响评估研究"(40801043);中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化对长江流域油菜生产影响分析"(CCSF2011-12)

摘　　要：为了定量评估气候变化背景下中国小麦生产潜力变化主要特征和气候归因,将1961—2010年分为1961—1990年和1991—2010年2个时段,对比分析近50年气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化,并基于IIASA最新开发的农业生态区模型AEZ3.0模拟气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响。结果表明,由于热量、水分条件以及小麦生育期的变化,近50年中国雨养和灌溉小麦单产潜力增加的区域主要为东北、华北和四川盆地,单产潜力减少的区域为西北和东南地区。中国冬小麦的适宜区域出现较明显的北扩南收态势,而雨养春小麦适宜面积在中国半湿润半干旱的过渡带显著减少。全国雨养小麦总生产潜力减少5%,而灌溉小麦总生产潜力变化不大。东北区域雨养和灌溉小麦总生产潜力增加都最为明显,是气候变化背景下实现中国小麦增产的重点区域。中国小麦生产需要合理利用气候资源和优化布局,以适应气候变化带来的影响。In order to assess the characteristics of wheat potential productivity in China and find the climatic reasons of the potential productivity change, the period from 1961 to 2010 was divided into two stages, i.e., 1961-1990 and 1991-2010, then the agro-climatic resource was analyzed and compared. This research employed the Argo-ecological Zones model 3.0 to simulate the impact of occurred climatic change on potential productivity of wheat in China. Compared the period from 1961 to 1990 with the period from 1991 to 2010, the simulation results showed that, because of the change in the heat, moisture condition and crop cycle, increase in the potential yield of wheat mainly took place in the northeast, north and Sichuan Basin owning to the favorable influence of climate change. In contrast the northwest and southeast China experienced a reduction in the potential yield. The suitable areas for growing winter wheat had moved northwards obviously. And the suitable area of rain-fed spring wheat was reductive in the transition band of half moist and half arid climate area. The total potential production of rain-fed wheat reduced 5% in China, but it did not change obviously for irrigate wheat. It was the most obvious that, the total potential production of rain-fed and irrigate wheat increased in Northeast of China under global warming background. The production of China wheat needs to utilize climate resources and optimize the overall arrangement rationally, in order to adopt the influence brought in climatic change.

关 键 词：气候变化 AEZ模型 农业气候资源 小麦 生产潜力 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]