中国人口死亡率改善水平比较分析  

Mortality Improvement Analysis for Chinese Population

作　　者：王晓军[1,2] 米海杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心 [2]中国人民大学风险管理与精算中心 [3]中国人民大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2013年第2期58-63,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(10JJD790037);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(10YJA910008)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用1981-2010年人口普查和人口抽样调查提供的死亡率数据,对四次人口普查期间中国人口死亡率改善水平进行深层次分析,分别按年龄、性别、城乡、是否投保等进行对比,并与其他国家的数据对比,旨在探讨中国人口死亡率变化趋势和不同分类人群死亡率改善的差异、成因及变动趋势,最终为长寿风险管理提供依据。主要结论是:建国以来,中国人口死亡率持续改善,死亡率改善程度随年龄的增长呈下降趋势,近十年来死亡率改善程度最高,婴儿和55岁以上人口尤为明显。大部分年龄组的女性死亡率改善水平高于男性,市人口死亡率改善水平明显高于镇和乡,投保商业保险人口的死亡率改善水平高于全国人口,我国人口的死亡率改善水平高于对比国家,这反映了我国人民生活和医疗水平的实质提高,也表明未来死亡率还有较大的下降空间。The paper studies on the mortality improvement in China since 1949. Comparison is made by age, gender, urban and rural, insured and general population, gap between China and developed countries etc. in order to discuss the difference among them and provide evidence for longevity risk management. The result shows that the mortality of Chinese population has been improved consistently since 1949 and the mortality improvement decreases with age. Large mortality improvements were exhibited across all ages in the last decade, particularly for infants and individuals above 55. For the rates of mortality improvement, females are greater than males, the city is higher than the town and countryside and the insured are stronger than the general at most ages. Moreover, China has experienced larger improvements than other countries for most age groups. This is mainly due to the enhancement of life quality and medical technology for Chinese. It also indicates that there is a large space for Chinese mortality improvements.

关 键 词：死亡率改善 性别差异 城乡差异 被保险人口 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]