中国财政政策通货膨胀效应的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Inflation Effect of China' s Fiscal Policy

作　　者：董秀良[1] 帅雯君[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院 [2]华侨大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2013年第3期43-50,共8页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目"积极财政政策;价格水平决定与通货膨胀治理研究"(10YJA790041);国家社科基金重点项目"转变经济发展方式的理论与政策研究"(10AJL004);福建省人文社科基金项目"我国财政支出的动态;非均衡增长效应与通货膨胀风险研究"(2009B064);吉林大学基本科研业务费资助项目(项2011ZZ021)和吉林大学985平台资助

摘　　要：全球金融危机使各国财政赤字激增,通货膨胀问题日益严重,通货膨胀治理成为各国关注的焦点。与货币数量理论相比,新近发展的价格水平决定的财政理论(FTPL)对于解释通货膨胀的成因和提出通货膨胀治理的建议更有优势。本文基于FTPL视角,选取我国1982-2011年度数据,应用状态空间模型识别政策在价格决定中的作用区制,结果表明1982-1996年为M区制,1997-2011年为F区制;再选取1997-2011年季度数据,应用SVAR法结合货币政策研究F区制下财政政策对通货膨胀的短期和长期动态效应,实证研究表明财政政策比货币政策对通货膨胀的影响更大,而且财政政策对通货膨胀有长期效应,结合中国经济的实际情况,我们认为货币政策不是导致近年来通货膨胀的主要成因,抑制通货膨胀要依靠财政政策,应实行相机选择的财政政策来实现物价稳定和经济可持续发展的宏观调控目标。The worldwide financial crisis have exploded fiscal deficit, and the inflation becomes increasingly serious, which brought inflation governance to the forefront of national policy concerns. Compared with the quantity theory of money, the latest developed theory （FTPL） have more advantages on explaining the causes of inflation and raising policy suggestions. Based on FTPL, this paper explores the annual domestic data from 1982 to 2011 and uses the state space model to identify the policy regime in determining the price level. The result indicates that the period 1982 - 1996 is M regime and the period 1997 -2011 can be described as F regime. Then, integrated with monetary policy, this paper uses the quarterly data of 1997 -2011 and SVAR model to distinguish between short-run and long-run dynamic effects of fiscal policy on inflation under F regime. The empirical research shows that fiscal policy has greater impact than monetary policy on inflation, besides, fiscal policy also has the long-term effect on inflation. Combined with the fact of Chinese economy, we believe that monetary policy is not the main determinant of inflation recently and fiscal policy plays a significant role in controlling inflation. We should adopt discretionary fiscal policy to achieve the macro-goal of price stability and sustainable economic development.

关 键 词：财政政策 通货膨胀 FTPL 货币政策 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]