球罐风险评估中模糊层次分析法的应用  

Application of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Risk Assessment of Spherical Tanks

作　　者：金恋[1] 丁克勤[2] 舒安庆[1,3] 魏化中[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学机电工程学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100013 [3]武汉市压力容器压力管道安全技术研究中心,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《当代化工》2013年第3期328-331,共4页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：十二五国家科技支撑计划课题"特种承压设备风险评估技术研究";项目号:2011BAK06B01-13

摘　　要：分析球罐风险中各因素,以"球罐失效"作为顶事件,首先按照失效发生的速度对失效原因进行分类,以"泄漏"和"开裂"为第二行事件,然后按照失效模式对失效原因进行分类,层层分析将其划分为互相联系的有序层使之条理化.构造层次指标系统,建立模糊综合评价数学模型,采用模糊数学的方法对球罐进行风险评估.计算球罐各部分以及整体的安全等级,从而找出球罐薄弱安全环节,确定安全工作的重点.In the analysis of spherical tank risk factors, ＂Spherical tank failure＂ was used as the top event. At first, the failure causes were classified in accordance with the speed of failure occurring.＂Leak＂ and ＂cracking＂ were used as the second event, and then the failure causes were classified based on the failure mode. The hierarchy indicators system was constructed, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical model was established, and the risk assessment of spherical tank was carried out by using fuzzy math risk assessment method. The security levels of each part and whole of the spherical tank were calculated in order to identify weak security link of the spherical tank and determine the focus of the security work.

关 键 词：球罐 风险 模糊数学 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TQ018[化学工程]