铀的远期价格与现货价格关系实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Relationship Between Long-Term Price and Spot Price of Uranium

作　　者：张坤[1] 赵玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学地质资源经济与管理研究中心,江西抚州344000

出　　处：《东华理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期4-9,共6页Journal of East China University of Technology(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12BJY122);江西省高校人文社科重点研究基地招标项目(JD1044和JD1147)

摘　　要：铀的价格是影响我国"十二五"战略新兴核能产业发展的关键要素。为了准确了解铀远期价格和现货价格之间的规律,在协整研究的基础上,又进行了脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解。发现铀的远期价格与现货价格存在长期动态均衡,铀的市场价格传导富有效率,均衡短期偏离能够很快得到纠正。在价格波动传导方面,远期价格的波动对现货价格影响显著,反之则不成立。所以,铀价格波动主要来自于远期市场。研究结论表明,国际市场上铀的价格受远期市场的影响大于现货市场,铀的远期价格对现货价格具有价格发现作用。决策者可以根据这一结论适时决策。The price of uranium is a key factor which may affect the development of new strategic industry in twelve-five-year plan of China. To master the relationship between uranium＇ s long- term price and spot price, we do impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis on the basis of integration. We conclude that there is a long-standing equivalence between uranium＇ s long-term price and spot price ; the transmission of price volatility is efficient; temporary departure will be corrected quickly. For the transmission of price, long-term price has a significant effect on spot price, but the converse isn＇t true. Therefore, the violence of uranium price mainly comes from the long-term market, that is, uranium price is more affected by long-term market than spot market, so the long-term market is dominant to decide uranium price.

关 键 词：战略新兴产业 铀 远期价格 现货价格 协整检验 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]