我国中跑项目后备力量成绩发展趋势研究  

Research on the Development Trend of Middle-Distance Race Reserve Forces Performance in China

作　　者：徐向前[1] 杜娜娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院体育学院,河南商丘476000 [2]江西师范大学体育学院,江西南昌330027

出　　处：《搏击（体育论坛）》2013年第2期82-84,共3页Sport Forum

摘　　要：以历届城运会中跑项目前三名成绩均值为研究对象,利用灰色系统理论中的灰色包络模型和GM(1.1)模型群等方法,探讨城运会男女中跑项目成绩的发展变化趋势。结果显示:从递进系数看,女子800m发展状况优于男子,女子1500m发展状况劣于男子;从环比增长幅度看,男子1500m成绩波动最大,稳定性最差;从定基比系数看,男女各项均呈下降趋势,1500m项目的发展趋势线倾斜度明显大于800m项目,下降幅度较大。总体而言,城运会中跑项目中,800m成绩发展状况优于1500m,其中,女子1500m成绩发展状况最差,呈现出持续下降状态。Taking the first three average gradesin middle- distance race ofall previousNational City Gamesasthe research subject, this paper discusses the developing trend through using the grey envelope model and GM （1.1） of grey system group theories. The result shows that the development status of women＇s 800m is better than men＇s, but women＇s 1500m is worse than men＇s from the progressive coefficient; the stability of men＇s 1500m development is most fluctuant and poorest from the rings of compare growth rate; From the fixed base coefficient, all projects are declining, the trend line of 1500m is steeper and falling more obviously than 800m. In general, the performance development status of 800m is better than 1500m,the performance development statusofwomen＇s1500m isworst and displayscontinuing decline.

关 键 词：城市运动会 田径 中跑 成绩 预测 

分 类 号：G82[文化科学—体育训练]