江西省社会保障水平影响因素及其经济效应  

Influence factors of jiangxi social security level and it's economic effect

作　　者：邓群钊[1,2] 付莲莲[1,2] 翁异静[1,2] 马超[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中部社会经济发展研究中心,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学管理科学与工程系,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（理科版）》2013年第1期97-102,共6页Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70861004);南昌市洪城特聘专家项目(2010);教育部人文社科重点研究基地南昌大学中国中部社会经济发展研究中心资助项目;江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ09033)

摘　　要：社会保障水平不仅受到经济和非经济因素的影响,而且其作为收入分配手段也会对宏观经济产生影响。本文以江西省1990-2009年经济统计数据为样本区间,运用协整理论建立了相关的协整回归模型和向量自回归模型。研究结果表明:老年人口比重、失业率、居民生活收入水平和财政收入对社会保障水平有显著性影响,其中老年人口比重对其影响最大;提高江西省社会保障水平有助于增加储蓄和扩大消费,并且脉冲响应函数分析表明其对经济增长具有稳定的持续性的拉动作用,同时方差分解表明在不考虑RGDP自身贡献率的情况下消费对经济增长的贡献最大。The Social security level is not only influenced by economic and non-economic factors,but also affects the macroeconomy.In this paper,Cointegration Regression Model,Error Correction Model,and Vector Autoregression Model are established based on Conintegration Theory,using data sample interval in 1990-2009 years.The results show that the proportion of elderly people,unemployment,income level and the level of financial income have a significant impact on it.In the size of the existing social security expenditure,raising the level of social security is help to increase savings and expand consumption.Impulse response function shows that it helps to stably boost savings,consumption and the growth of economy,and this influence has a long sustained effect.Variance decomposition shows that,regardless of RGDP own contribution,consumption＇s contribution on economic growth is greater than savings.

关 键 词：社会保障水平 影响因素 经济效应 协整理论 

分 类 号：C81[社会学—统计学]