气候变化对塔里木河流域作物需水量的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on Crop Water Requirement in the Tarim River Basin

作　　者：木沙.如孜 白云岗 徐强 雷晓云[1] 刘洪波 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049 [3]塔里木河流域巴音郭楞管理局库塔干渠管理站,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第3期68-70,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001066)

摘　　要：对塔里木河流域26个气象站1961—2005年的常规气象观测资料进行统计分析,结果表明流域内灌区平均气温近45 a来显著上升,其中2000年以后气温较45 a平均气温升高0.75℃,平均每10 a上升0.28℃,升幅达13.75%。采用FAO-布莱尼-克雷多方法,结合作物系数,计算了流域内主要作物的需水量和农田灌溉需水量,结果表明:流域灌区内现状气温上升的情景下,作物参考蒸散量增加量为24.49 mm,增加幅度为2.83%;灌区小麦、果树、棉花、瓜菜和牧草等作物需水量将分别增加3.39%(70.62 mm)、7.30%(152.35 mm)、3.66%(76.30 mm)、2.98%(62.22 mm)、4.49%(93.58 mm);农田灌溉需水量共增加8.44亿m3。Based on the routine meteorological observation data of nearly 26 stations in the Tarim River basin from 1961 to 2005 and using statistical analysis method, the average temperature which rose significantly in the irrigation area in nearly 45 years was investigated. Temperature after the year 2000 was increased by 0.75 ℃ than that during 45 years, with average rise rate of 0.28 ℃ in every 10 years, increasing by 13.75 %. Using FAO - Bryne - Credo method in combination with crop coefficients, main crops water requirement and irrigation water requirement in the basin were calculated. The results indicate that, in the scenario that all era average temperature increases 0.75 ℃ after the year 2000, crop reference steam bulk volume increases from 846.93 mm to 872.62 mm by 2.83% ; crop water demand in irrigation area of the river basin for wheat, orchards, cot-ton, vegetables and pasture increases by 3.39% （70.62 mm）, 7.30% （ 152.35 mm） ,3.66% （76.30 mm）, 2.98% （62.22 mm ） and 4.49% （93.58 mm） ;irrigation water requirements totally increase by 844 million m^3.

关 键 词：气候变化 气温 作物需水量 农田灌溉需水量 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：S275[农业科学—农业水土工程]