孟连7.3级强震短临预报研究——应用“层次法”的模拟预测  

Study on the short-term prediction of strong Menglian earthquake(M7.3) ——Modeling Prediction by Applying “Hierarchy Method”

作　　者：秦保燕[1] 荣代潞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地震》2000年第3期9-14,共6页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目!(49674 2 1 0 )

摘　　要：孟连 7.3级大震前有中强地震发生 ,这对大震的地点预报十分有利 ,但中、强震发生后是否一定有大震发生 ,这仍然是预报难题。其次 ,中、强震发生后 ,究竟相隔多长时间后发生大震 ,这是另一个预报难题。以孟连地震作为震例 ,用“层次法”对上述二个问题作出回答。最后由“层次法”得到孟连地震的预报参数为 :震中 2 2°N,99°E;MX7.3;时间 1 995年 7月 1 2日。预测参数与实际地震参数一致。There are several moderately strong earthquakes occurred before Menglian earthquake, which is useful to the location prediction of the strong earthquake followed. But it is still a difficult problem whether a strong earthquake will occur or not after moderately strong earthquakes have occurred in an area. On the other hand, it is another problem that how long an expected strong earthquake will occur after the occurrence of a moderate earthquake. This paper has provided answers to the problems mentioned above using “Hierarchy Method” to Menglian earthquake. According to the “Hierarchy Method”, the parameters of Menglian earthquake are predicted as location: 22°N, 99°E; magnitude: 7.3; date: July 12, 1995, indicating that there is no difference with the realistic parameters of Menglian earthquake.

关 键 词：层次法 中强前震 强震 短临预报 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]