长期性前兆异常的探讨  

Exploration of long-term precursory anomalies

作　　者：李献智[1] 余素荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《地震》2000年第3期102-106,共5页Earthquake

摘　　要：:对长期性前兆异常进行研究的结果表明 :1长期性前兆异常的开始和结束及其发展变化一般与地震活动幕的起止和强震活动有关 ;2近年出现的长期性前兆异常的开始时间一般是先东后西 ,呈现出一定程度的有序性 ,与强震依次由东向西发生一致。长期性前兆异常展示了区域应力场的演化、扩展、转移的图像 ,以及地震间的相联系和相互影响 ,并有可能判定地震幕的起止和预测后续地震。因此 ,该结果为研究和判定地震趋势提出了一种可能的途径。The research on long term precursory anomalies shows that the beginning, ending and evolution of the long term precursors are related to those of a seismic period and strong seismicities. The long term precursors appear in some order in recent years, for example, the precursors moved from east to west and the shocks took place first in the east and then in the west. Therefor the long term precursors might display the evolution, expansion and immigration of the regional stress field and the correlation between the earthquakes, by which we can judge the beginning and ending of a seismic period and predict the following shocks. The results provide a new way for the study on dynamics in seismicity and to determine seismic tendency.

关 键 词：长期前兆异常 应力场演化图像 地震动力学 

分 类 号：P315.727[天文地球—地震学]