应用转移概率法作特殊天气项目的预测  

Forecasting Special Weather Using Transition Probability

作　　者：王华[1] 张俊岚[1] 

机构地区：[1]阿克苏地区气象局,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《新疆气象》2000年第3期4-6,共3页Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：运用转移概率方法对阿克苏市历年开春、入冬期和霜冻日期等特殊天气项目序列进行分析研究 ,揭示出各序列状态之间的转换规律 ,并利用最大概率预报原理对各项目进行预测 ,预报效果显著 ,说明转移概率方法对特殊天气项目的预测具有实际应用价值。The sequence of spring begining,winter begining,first frost and latest frost in Akesu were analyz with transition probability.The transition law of every item were shown.Every item were forecastted with the maximun probability principle.The forecasting effect is good.It is shown to forecast special weather with transition probability is really applied value.

关 键 词：转移概率 长期天气预报 天气项目 预测 

分 类 号：P456.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]