乌鲁木齐地区气候要素若干特征及变化趋势研究  

Research on Variation Trend and Certain Characteristic of Climatic Elements in Urumchi

作　　者：马丽媛 马韫娟[2] 马淑红 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象服务中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《中国科技信息》2013年第6期33-34,38,共3页China Science and Technology Information

基　　金：水利部资助项目

摘　　要：利用乌鲁木齐地区10个水文气象站50多年(1961～2012年)气象资料,对乌鲁木齐地区平均气温、降水量、相对湿度主要气候要素的若干特征及趋势变化进行研究。结果表明,近50多年来,乌鲁木齐地区年平均气温增温趋势最强的是北部平原地区,贡献最大是冬季增温显著;乌鲁木齐年平降水量增加趋势最强的是北部平原地区,贡献最大是夏季降水量增加显著;乌鲁木齐地区增湿趋势最强的南部中山带和高山带,以冬季(1月)气候倾向率最大对全年相对湿度增加贡献最大。20世纪80年代开始增温度和增湿及降水量增大,21世纪初度和增湿及降水量增幅达最大。创新点在于,建立无资料地区气候要素预测模式,发现乌鲁木齐地区年平均气温、年降水量随海拔高度增高遵循多项式分布。为水资源影响机理提供理论基础,为当地政府制定气候变化背景下水资源合理利用提供决策支持。为乌鲁木齐地区中山带水利工程建设提供科学依据。This paper makes a research on certain characteristics and variation trend of main climatic elements in Urumchi including average temperature,precipitation and relative humidity basing on the climatic materials collected from ten hydrometeorological stations in Urumchi in last 50 years or more（from 1961 to 2012）.The result demonstrates that in recently 50 years or more,the strongest warming trend of temperature is recorded in Northern flat area of Urumchi,to which the significant warming trend in winter contributes mostly;the strongest increasing trend of annual average precipitation is recorded in Northern flat area,to which the signification increasing of precipitation in summer contributes mostly;the strongest increasing trend of humidity is recorded in middle and alpine belt of southern area,and the climatic tendency in winter（January）has contributed mostly to the relative humidity in the whole year.The range of warming trend and increasing trend of humidity and precipitation started to become larger since 80s of 20th century and reaches the largest in the early 21st century.The innovation point of this paper is to create a climatic elements forecast mode without basing on the materials;to find out that the average temperature and annual precipitation in Urumchi will increase being subject to altitude following the polynomial distribution.This paper provides fundamental basis for water resource impacting mechanism and decision support to local government on rational utilization of water resource in the background of climatic variation.To provide scientific basis for the Urumqi area of Zhongshan with the construction of water conservancy project.

关 键 词：气候要素 若干特征 变化趋势 乌鲁木齐地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]