用简单海气耦合模式产品作热带气旋频数年际预测  

PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL

作　　者：李永平[1] 梁旭东[1] 邓之瀛[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2000年第3期212-217,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金!(49705063);国家"九五"攻关课题资助项目!(96-908-05-06和96-908-02-05)

摘　　要：首先建立一个用于优化热带简单海气耦合模式积分初始场的四维变分同化系统，由此提高模式对热带海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）年际预测的准确率，并利用３７年模式输出产品建立了影响华东和上海市的热带气旋（ＴＣ）年频数的长期预测方程，试报结果良好。A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the, initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-yr products of this model and the forecast results are perfect in 1998 and 1999.

关 键 词：热带气旋 海气耦合模式 频数 年际预测 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]