近年来灾害天气机理和预测研究的进展  

Study on Mechanism and Prediction of Disastrous Weathers during Recent Years

作　　者：赵思雄[1] 孙建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学》2013年第2期297-312,共16页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目41075032;国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2009CB421401

摘　　要：本文对近年来灾害天气机理和预测的研究成果作了简要的概述,涉及致洪暴雨、登陆台风、寒潮暴雪、强沙尘暴、高温酷暑等,紧密结合一些重大的极端天气事件展开分析。近年灾害天气频发,影响依旧十分严重。灾害天气多涉及各种尺度的系统以及它们之间的相互作用,加上气候变化,环流异常,中尺度系统活跃,使灾害天气的情况更趋复杂。本文对此作了探讨,并提出了一些需要面对和思考的问题,与大家切磋。In this paper, research results on the mechanism and prediction of disastrous weathers, including heavy rainfall causing floods, severe strong rainfall by landfall typhoons, cold waves, heavy snowfall, strong dust storms, and extreme hot events, are briefly presented. Some of the main extreme weathers are mentioned and discussed. Recently, disastrous weathers have been occurring very frequently and causing significant damages. These weathers are associated with multiscale systems and the interactions between them, particularly due to climate changes, general circulation anomalies, and activities of mesoscale systems. Therefore, the mechanism and prediction of disastrous weathers have become more complicated. Nevertheless, the abovementioned related scientific problems are still reviewed in this paper. Moreover, some suggestions are proposed for the future research.

关 键 词：灾害天气 环流异常 多尺度相互作用 预测研究21世纪 

分 类 号：P445[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]