基于粗糙集理论的PPP项目风险分担研究  

Research on Risk Allocation of Public-private Partnership Projects based on Rough Set Theory

作　　者：巴希[1] 乌云娜[1] 胡新亮[1] 李泽众[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2013年第5期10-14,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:70871037)

摘　　要：公私合作制将私人资本、技术和管理经验引入基础设施建设及运营项目,发挥了巨大的经济效益和社会效益。在我国公私合作项目的实践过程中,风险分担不明确始终是阻碍该模式在基础设施投融资领域进行广泛推广的关键因素,严重时甚至导致项目的失败。针对承担风险的主体不确定这一影响公私双方持久稳定合作的问题,通过案例分析和文献研究识别出风险分担主体不明确的风险因素,在此基础上利用粗糙集方法对风险分担评价指标体系中指标进行属性约简,以剔除对于分担结果影响较小的因素。理想点法能够对具有不同风险分担偏好的评价人做出的风险承担选择进行评价,以确定合理的风险分担方案。评价结果为公私双方制定合理的风险分担方案提供参考。Public-Private-Partnership introduces private capital, technology and management experience into infrastructure con- struction and operation of projects, which brings huge economic and social benefits. In the practice of public-private partnership pro- ject, the unclear risk-sharing is always the key factor hindering the PPP pattern to widely promote in infrastructure investment and fi- nancing, even lead to project failure. Aimed at the uncertainty of main body bearing risk, which affects the lasting stability of Public- Private-Partnership. Through case studies and literature research, this paper identified the risk factors which has unclear risk-sharing body. On this basis, using Rough Set method to evaluate the risk-sharing index system and reduce the attributes which affect the risk- sharing result least. The TOPSIS method can evaluate the program by the people with different risk-sharing preferences that will deter- mine the most reasonable one. Meantime, the evaluation results provide a reference for both public and private to develop a reasonable risk-sharing scheme.

关 键 词：基础设施项目 公司合作制 粗糙集 理想点法 项目风险 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]