基于广义随机Petri网的工程突发事故应急处置流程建模及效能分析  

Modeling and Simulation of Emergency Management of Construction Incident Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

作　　者：李迁[1] 刘亚敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院,南京210093

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2013年第2期162-167,176,共7页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71101069;71101067;71001049);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAG07B05);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD169);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目

摘　　要：工程突发事故不可避免,提高其应急处置能力是工程应急管理的关键环节。针对工程突发事故的随机性特征,运用广义随机Petri网对事故应急处置流程进行过程建模,利用广义随机Petri网与马尔可夫链同构特性构建其可达图,并分析模型的活性和有界性。以无锡地铁工程突发事故应急处置流程为例进行仿真,得到其时间性能、运作效率等主要性能参数,结果表明:该模型能有效发掘应急处置流程中瓶颈环节和处理耗时的关键活动,为定量化地评价工程突发事件应急处置流程效能提供一个新思路。Construction incidents are inevitable thus improving the response capabilities are critical in construction emergency management. Based on randomness and dynamics of construction incident, this paper uses GSPN to model the process of emergency disposal, and converts it to Markov chain since GSPN is isomorphic with Markov Chain. Taking WUXI METRO as an example, this paper obtains the main performance indices to explore the key nodes of process with Markov chain and corresponding mathematics methods. The simulation results show that the workflow model has significant effect on assessing the process of emergency management quantitatively.

关 键 词：工程 突发事故 PETRI网 应急管理 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]