Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010  

作　　者：YIN Zhan'e YIN Jie ZHANG Xiaowei 

机构地区：[1]Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China [2]Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062, China [3]School of Tourism and City Management, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2013年第3期436-446,共11页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071324; No.41201550; No.40730526; Humanities and Social Sciences Project from the Ministry of Education, No.12YJCZtt257; The Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, No. 13YZ061; No.13ZZ035; Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, No.KLGIS2011A04; The Fundamental Re- search Funds for the Central Universities, and the Key Subject Development Project of the Shanghai Munici- pal Education Commission, No.J50402

摘　　要：China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter＇s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differen- tially-weighted extreme temperature indices （maximum temperature and high temperature days）. To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental im- pact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter＇s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differen- tially-weighted extreme temperature indices （maximum temperature and high temperature days）. To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental im- pact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.

关 键 词：hazard analysis high temperature extremes SCENARIO EXPOSURE China 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] TM21[天文地球—固体地球物理学]