基于灰色模型的碳减排压力分析  

Analysis on the Pressure of Carbon Emission Reduction Based on the Grey Model

作　　者：刘静暖[1] 黄林[2] 刘宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学,长春130117 [2]中国人民大学,北京100080

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2013年第3期150-155,共6页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：吉林省教育厅重点研究基地招标课题(吉教科文合字2012第546号);吉林省科技厅软科学项目(项目编号:20120649)

摘　　要：发展低碳经济是实现生态文明和可持续发展的必由之路。经济发展、能源结构和能源强度是影响碳排放的主要因素。在能源结构和能源减排技术没有突破性变革的情况下,碳减排的主要压力来自经济发展程度和能源强度。文章以能源强度作为主要影响因素,利用灰色理论模型探讨了区域经济碳减排面临的压力。预测结果表明:到2020年,碳减排压力较小,但受工业比重过高、能源结构单一、能耗波动较大等因素影响,短期及中期区域经济将面临较大的碳减排压力。因此,必须转变经济发展模式,优化产业结构,多角度的探索更具可操作性的对策。The development of low-carbon economy is the only way to achieve ecological civilization and sustainable development.Economic development,energy structure and energy intensity are the main factors to affecting the carbon emissions.Under the background of energy structure and energy saving technology breakthrough change,carbon emission pressure reduces from the level of economic development and energy intensity.The article as the main influencing factors,take advantage of the gray theoretical model of the pressure faced by the Jilin carbon reduction.The forecast results：in 2020,the pressure of carbon emission reduction would be small in Jilin province.But by the high proportion of industry and the single energy structure,energy consumption fluctuations factors,Jilin province,facing pressure on short-term and medium-term carbon emission reduction.Therefore,we must change the mode of economic development,optimizing industrial structure,and explore more feasible countermeasures in multi-augle.

关 键 词：灰色理论 低碳经济 碳减排 能源强度 压力 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]