中国对外直接投资的贸易效应——基于动态面板模型系统GMM方法  

How Does China's OFDI Affect Its Exports? An Empirical Analysis Using Dynamic Panel Data Models and System GMM Estimators

作　　者：胡兵[1] 乔晶[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆400047 [2]重庆工商大学管理学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第4期11-19,共9页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国对外直接投资的贸易效应及政策研究"(12CJY084);教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"中国对外直接投资影响因素的实证研究"(11XJC790003);重庆市社会科学规划项目"贸易开放对我国政府规模影响的理论分析与实证研究"(2011YBJJ034)

摘　　要：本文基于贸易引力模型分析框架和2003～2010年期间中国与62个样本国家或地区的双边数据，实证检验近年增长迅速的中国对外直接投资的贸易效应，并采用适合样本和数据特征的动态面板模型系统GMM估计，以获得较为稳健的估计结果。实证检验发现，中国对发展中国家的对外直接投资显著促进出口贸易，对发达国家的对外直接投资则负向影响出口贸易，总体效应为负，中国对外直接投资整体上呈现出微弱的贸易替代效应。本文结论对于中国如何协调贸易投资政策以实现由贸易大国向贸易投资大国的平稳过渡和顺利转变，具有重要启示意义和现实价值。China has achieved remarkable success in attracting foreign direct investment （FDI） since the 1980s,and has been a giant of FDI recipient. But in the last few years a more attractive trend has caught the attention of academics as well as policymakers. As China is rapidly integrating with the global economy,its overseas enterprises have been gaining importance as a new source of international capital. According to the Chinese government official statistics, although its outward investment is still small in terms of stock, especially compared to the huge inward FDI,China＇ s outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） flows reached US $ 68.81 billion and ranked 5th among all economies in terms of OFDI flows in 2010. Instead of analyzing FDI inflows,researchers are more and more interested in examining the surge of outflows from China. The complementary or substitution relationship between OFDI and trade, in particular exports, has been a subject of debate in both theoretical and empirical literature in recent decades. As a new source of international capital and a big trade economist, how does China＇ s OFDI affect its exports？ This study examines the trade effect of OFDI stocks on exports in China by disentangling sample countries into developing and developed economies for the 62 selected countries over the period from 2003 to 2010, using dynamic panel data models and system GMM estimators. The structure of the study is as follows. Section 1 provides the background information about the study. The next section presents a theoretical and empirical literature review about the effect of OFDI on trade, in particular exports. Section 3 outlines the empirical models and estimation methods. Section 4 describes the sample and data used in the analysis. Section 5 describes the econometric procedure and discusses the empirical results, while section 6 concludes. The empirical results for the estimations of the gravity equation demonstrate that China＇ s OFDI flows into developing countries significantly inc

关 键 词：对外直接投资 贸易效应 动态面板模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]