经验贝叶斯法在安全设施效果评估中的应用  

Application of Empirical Bayes Method in Effectiveness Evaluation of Safety Facilities

作　　者：赵利苹[1] 许金良[1] 杨宏志[1] 张素青[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2013年第4期112-118,140,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通运输行业联合科技攻关项目(2009353350610)

摘　　要：通过分析经验贝叶斯评估方法的原理,提出前后观测效果评估的流程和步骤,并以实例评估效果,验证了经验贝叶斯法在效果评估中的有效性。根据线路的事故率、路段长度、交通量等基础数据,采用经验贝叶斯法,参照同类型对象的事故信息,估算评估地点未安装设施时的后期期望事故率,与后期观测事故率相比,得到显著性,从而评估设施的安全效果。根据安全效果与其标准误差的比值,确定设施效果的可信度。以嵊义线为例的设施效果评估结果表明,所选安全设施方案可以减少51.5%的事故率,且这个结果具有95%可信度的统计显著性。实例应用验证了经验贝叶斯方法在设施安全效果评估中的有效性。By analyzing the principle of the empirical Bayes evaluation method,the process and steps of effectiveness evaluation before and after observation are put forward.Then,the effectiveness of empirical Bayes method in effectiveness evaluation is verified through example proving.By gathering accident rates,section length,traffic volume and other basic data of assessed locations,based on Empirical Bayes method,referring the accident information of the same type of object,the late period expected accident rate of assessed locations where safety facilities is not installed is estimated.Compared with the late period observed accident rate,the significance level is obtained so as to determine the safety effectiveness of the safety facilities.According to the ratio of safety effectiveness to its standard error,the confidence level of the safety facilities is eventually determined.The evaluation result of the safety facilities on Shengzhou-Yiwu Road indicates that the installation scheme can reduce total accident rate by 51.5%,and the treatment effect is at the 95% statistical significance level of confidence.The sample is verified the effectiveness of the empirical Bayes method.The sample application verified the effectiveness of the Empirical Bayes method in effectiveness evaluation of safety facilities.

关 键 词：交通工程 效果评估 经验贝叶斯法 安全设施 事故率 

分 类 号：U412.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]