黄石市1981～1996年死亡率与YPLL的动态分析  

The dynamic analysis of mortality rate and years of potential life lost in Huangshi (1981～1996)

作　　者：谢立[1] 施侣元[2] 廖林贵[1] 舒丽萍[1] 陈晓勇[1] 宋焰超[1] 柳玉枝[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄石市卫生防疫站防疫科,湖北黄石435000 [2]同济医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,湖北武汉430030

出　　处：《疾病控制杂志》2000年第3期224-226,共3页Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention

摘　　要：目的　了解疾病模式的变化规律及主要疾病因子 ,为疾病的预防与控制提供决策依据。方法　采用死亡率 (MR)、减寿年 (YPL L )、减寿率 (YPL L R)及其标化率等指标分析人群健康状况与疾病的动态变化。结果　人群平均 MR为 398.80 / 10万 ,标化死亡率 (SMR) 4 82 .38/ 10万 ;人群平均 YPL L R为 49.90‰ ,标化减寿率 (SYPL L R ) 5 1.2 8‰ ;SMR、SYPL L R分别从 1981年的76 5 .77/ 10万和 5 5 .75‰降至 1996年的 432 .6 0 / 10万和 36 .6 9‰ ;SMR的最大平均增长速度男女均为传染病 ,SYPL L R男性为呼吸系病 ,女性为传染病 ;经时间序列直线回归拟合 ,SMR、SYPL L、YPL L R和 SYPL L R的预测回归方程意义显著。结论　传染病危害降低 ,但意外死亡、肿瘤、脑血管病和心脏病等慢性病导致的卫生问题更为明显。Objectiive To find out the regular pattern and the main factors of disease, to provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of diseases. Methods Using mortality rates (MR), YPLL, YPLL rates (YPLLR), standardized mortality rates (SMR) and standardized YPLLR (SYPLLR) as indicators for health status and disease risk were evaluated. Results The average MR was 398.80 ×10 -5 . Average YPLLR was 49.90‰ , SYPLLR was 51.28‰ , SYPLLR was higher in males than in females (χ 2=130.3, P< 0.01 ). The biggest change in growth speed of SMR was infectious diseases in males and females, that of SYPLLR was respiratory system diseases in males, infections diseases in females. Results from the simple regression of time sequence were associated with SMR, SYPLL, YPLLR and SYPLLR. Conclusions Infectious diseases had decreased. Meanwhile, injuries and chronic diseases such as neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases are becoming major health problem.

关 键 词：死亡率 平均增长速度 时间序列 减寿率 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]