储油罐底腐蚀深度统计的极值理论应用  

Application of extreme value theory in the corrosion depth statistics of storage tank bottom

作　　者：刘雪云[1] 张宁宁[2] 赵光连 焦映厚[1] 钟诗胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学机电工程学院,哈尔滨150001 [2]胜利油田胜利勘察设计研究院有限公司,山东东营257026 [3]威海市能源监测中心,山东威海264209

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2013年第3期56-60,共5页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划重点资助项目(2009AA043404)

摘　　要：为准确了解储油罐底的腐蚀状态,掌握储油罐在长期服役过程中罐底最大腐蚀深度的统计规律,更科学有效地评估储油罐的剩余使用寿命,采用广义极值分布(GEV)作为统计模型,对罐底腐蚀深度的最大值进行极值统计,构造相应的统计模型,并采用L-矩法计算模型的参数值,分析罐底腐蚀深度的统计规律.采用该方法对胜利油田某联合站内的3个储油罐底腐蚀深度进行统计分析,结果表明:罐底腐蚀最大深度符合极值Ⅲ型分布(Weibull分布),而不是极值Ⅰ型分布(Gumbel分布),并均通过柯尔莫哥洛夫检验.极值Ⅲ型分布较极值Ⅰ型分布能更好地拟合罐底腐蚀最大深度的统计规律.To get the corrosion condition of tank bottom accurately,master the statistical rule of maximal corrosion depth of the tank bottom in long-term service,and evaluate the residual service life of storage tank more effectively,the generalized extreme value（GEV） distribution was adopted as statistical model for the corrosion depth of the tank bottom,and the statistical law of the corrosion depth was analyzed.L-moments method was used for calculating the values of the parameters.The method was used to three tank bottoms in one unite plants from Shengli Oilfield,and the results showed that the maximum corrosion depth accorded with the GEV distribution Ⅲ（Weibull distribution）,which got though the Kolmogorov inspection.The GEV distribution Ⅲ can fit the statistical rule of maximum corrosion depth better than that of the GEV distributionⅠ.

关 键 词：储油罐 腐蚀统计 极值理论 广义极值分布 L-矩法 

分 类 号：TH133[机械工程—机械制造及自动化] TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]