“七城会”南昌市赛区的传染病风险评估  

Risk assessment of infectious disease in Nanchang during the Seventh National City Games

作　　者：胡茂红[1] 李辉[1] 吴景文[1] 甘启芦[1] 戚京城[1] 孔令岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌市疾病预防控制中心应急办,江西南昌330038

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2013年第8期1537-1539,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的预测南昌市在第七届全国城市运动会期间传染病可能的流行态势。方法传染病风险评估应用德尔菲专家评估法结合澳大利亚/新西兰的风险管理标准,并在其基础上进行了适当调整,分别用影响性、可能性、脆弱性等3个因子计算风险分值。结果风险分值列前5位的传染病依次为手足口病、艾滋病、肺结核、霍乱、其他感染性腹泻,应重点防控;排在第6至第10位的是乙丙肝、甲戊肝、痢疾、流行性感冒、急性出血性结膜炎等,应加强监测。风险分值列后5位的传染病依次为传染性非典、钩体病、猩红热、炭疽、布病。结论风险评估结果表明,南昌市在第七届全国城市运动会举办期间,急性传染病如霍乱、痢疾、其他感染性腹泻、流行性感冒、急性出血性结膜炎等为防控的重点,而艾滋病、乙丙肝等血源性疾病风险分值高,表明了专家对赛事期间流动人口潜在影响性的充分认识。OBJECTIVE To predict the epidemic situation of infectious diseases during the Seventh National City Games in Nanchang. METHODS Delphi expert assessment method combined with the Australian/New Zealand Standard on risk manage- ment were applied and adjusted appropriate for infectious diseases risk assessment. The risk store was calculated with effectiveness, possibility and vulnerability. RESULTS Risk scores in the top five of the infectious disease followed by hand-foot-mouth disease, AIDS, tuberculosis, cholera and diarrhea. These should be focused on prevention and control; in the sixth to tenth is hepatitis B/C, hepatitis A/E, dysentery, influenza, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. These should be strengthened monitored. Risk scores in column five infectious diseases were contagious SARS, leptospirosis, scarlet fever, anthrax and brucellosis. CONCLUSION The risk assessment result suggests the control key should be focused on hand-foot-mouth disease, cholera, diarrhea, dysentery, influenza and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. And the high risk scores of the blood-borne disease, such as HIV/AIDS and hepatitis B/C, showed the experts had been concerning about the potential influence of floating population during the match.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 第七届全国城市运动会 传染病 风险评估 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]