石羊河流域径流量分布特征及对气候变化的响应——以西营河为例  

Distribution characteristics of runoff in Shiyang River basin and its responses to climate change——The case study of Xiying River

作　　者：刘明春[1,2] 李玲萍 史志娟[3] 秦三杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威733000 [3]甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2013年第1期193-198,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973计划)(2012CB955903;2010CB428401);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806021);甘肃省气象局"十人计划"

摘　　要：利用1961—2009年石羊河流域西营河径流量和气象资料,分析了近49年来径流量变化趋势、年内分配特征及与气象因素的内在关系。结果表明:近49年来西营河径流量总体呈减少趋势,冬、夏季减幅大于秋、春季;90年代四季径流量衰减明显,特别是年、春、夏季径流出现明显突变;年径流量补给主要以汛期雨水补给为主,雨水补给比例在逐渐增加,冬季积雪融水对径流量的补给比例在减少;流域内降水量呈较小的增加趋势,但是夏季降水增幅不明显。气温呈明显升高趋势,特别是冬季气温趋势系数最大,受其影响蒸发量均呈增大趋势;径流量与6—9月降水量呈显著正相关,但与7、8月气温、蒸发呈显著负相关。分析了未来气温、降水变化在不同情形下对径流量的可能影响,表明气温对径流量的负效应占据着主导作用,汛期气温的升高且伴随着蒸发的增大使年总径流量减少,气候变暖总体不利于流域径流量的增加。Based on the runoff observation and meteorological data at Xiying River in the Shiyang River basin during 1961--2009, the change trend and annual distribution of runoff as well as their relationship with meteorological factors were analyzed. The results showed that the overall change trend of runoff was going down in the recent 49a, and the de- crease range was greater in winter and summer than in spring and antmnn. The seasonal runoff decreased obviously in 1990s, especially the evident abrupt changes were found in yearly, spring and summer runoff. The annual runoff came mainly from rainwater during flood seasons, and the proportion of rainwater in total runoff was gradually increased, while that of snow melt water in total runoff was decreased. There was a small increasing trend of precipitation in the river basin, but it was not obvious in summer. The temperature increased significantly, and the trend coefficient of tempera- ture was the largest in winter, which caused the increase trend of evaporation. Correlative analysis showed that the runoff was positively correlated with the monthly precipitation during June to September, but it was negatively correlated with monthly temperature and evaporation during July to August. The probable influences of future temperature and precipita- tion changes on runoff under different conditions was also analyzed, which showed that the temperature would play a main negative role on rtmoff, and the rise of temperature along with the increase of evaporation during flood periods would bring out the decrease of total annual runoff. Climate wannin~ would be unfavorable to the increase of runoff in general.

关 键 词：气候变化 径流量 气候因子 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]