基于CA-Markov模型的三川流域景观格局分析及动态预测  

Landscape pattern analysis and dynamic prediction of Sanchuan basin in East China based on CA-Markov model

作　　者：程刚[1] 张祖陆[1] 吕建树[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,济南250014 [2]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,南京290013

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2013年第4期999-1005,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX0721-007-01);山东省(临沂大学)水土保持与环境保育重点实验室开放基金项目(201102)资助

摘　　要：以济南南部山区三川流域为研究对象,在ArcGIS和IDRISI平台的支持下,结合景观生态学原理,运用景观指数并引入Kappa系数对三川流域1990—2010年景观格局、动态度进行分析,最后运用CA-Markov模型对流域景观格局进行动态趋势预测。景观格局指数分析表明:三川流域景观类型以耕地、林地、建设用地和草地为主;受人类活动影响,1990—2010年三川流域耕地、林地面积减少,其余各景观面积均呈增加趋势;流域整体景观破碎度增加,斑块复杂度提高,各景观类型的分布渐趋均衡。景观格局变化前10年比后10年明显,人类活动对当地生态环境的影响较显著。Kappa系数表明:景观变化由各景观数量比例变化逐渐转变为各景观数量保持相对稳定下的景观空间位置上的变化。随着2000年后政策的引导,景观整体的变化渐趋稳定,人类活动对生态环境影响有所下降。CA-Markov模型预测结果表明,2010—2020年流域内各景观优势度下降,景观破碎度降低,均衡性持续提高;景观间的转入转出幅度不大,仅占总面积的3.08%,景观类型的转变主要发生在斑块交界处。总的来看,三川流域景观格局变化主要是耕地、林地面积减少,建设用地面积增加,生态环境更趋脆弱。With the support of ArcGIS and IDRISI platform, in combining with landscape ecology principles, and introducing landscape index and Kappa coefficient, this paper analyzed the land- scape pattern and its dynamic degree of the Sanchuan basin in the southern mountainous region of Ji＇ nan, Shandong Province of East China in 1990-2010, and predicted the dynamic trend of the landscape pattern of Sanchuan basin with CA-Markov model. The landscape index analysis showed that the main landscape types in the basin were cropland, forestland, urban/built-up land, and grassland. Under the effects of human activities, the cropland and grassland in 1990- 2010 decreased, while the others presented an increasing trend. Overall, the landscape fragmen- tation degree and patch complexity in the basin increased, and various landscape types tended to be distributed uniformly. The landscape pattern change was more obvious in the first ten years than in the later ten years, and human activities had more obvious effects on the local ecological environment. Kappa index suggested that the landsc.ape change turned gradually from the varia- tion of landscape quantitative proportion to the variation of the landscape spatial position underthe conditions of the landscape quantity keeping relatively stable. Under the policy guidance since 2000, the overall landscape change gradually became more stable, and the effects of human activities on the local ecological environment decreased. The prediction results of CA-Markov model showed that in 2010-2020, the dominance degree and fragmentation degree of all land- scape types would be declined, the balanced characteristics would be improved, and the ampli- tude of landscapes moving in or out would be not large, only occupying 3.08% of the total area. The transformation of landscape types would mainly occur at the patch borders. Overall, the landscape pattern change in the basin was mainly manifested in decrease of cropland and forest- land and the increase of urban/built-up land, with the ecological

关 键 词：景观格局指数 Kappa系数 CA-Markov模型 

分 类 号：Q142.4[生物学—生态学] S181[生物学—普通生物学]