分析师对IPO首日价位预测准确吗  

Is it Accuracy of Analysts' Forecasts on the First-day Price of IPO?

作　　者：黄顺武[1] 韦东[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《贵州财经学院学报》2013年第2期7-14,共8页Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目"规制;投机与IPO抑价"(2012HGXJ0083);安徽省软科学重点项目"安徽省上市公司融资结构与经营绩效研究"(11020503064)

摘　　要：以2009—2011年间A股IPO数据为样本,考察了证券分析师IPO首日价位预测的准确性,并利用回归方法对影响证券分析师预测偏差的因素进行了研究。研究发现,中国证券分析师IPO首日价位预测准确性的整体水平有待提高;证券分析师预测偏差与投资者非理性行为、超额认购倍数和分析师数量显著负相关,与证券分析师意见分歧显著正相关。最后,根据研究结论提出了提高证券分析师预测准确性的政策建议。Based on the forecast data for A-shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange （SHSE） , China＇ s small and medium enterprises （SME） and Chinese GEM over the period of 2009--2011, this article examined the accuracy of securities analysts＇ forecasts of the first-day price of IPO and explored the influence factors about the rate of forecast deviation for securities analysts through multivariate analysis. The results show that the overall accuracy of Chinese securities analysts＇ forecasts of the first-day price of IPO needs to be improved. The rate of forecast deviation for securities analysts are significant negative correlated with the investors＇ reasonless behavior, the over subscription and the number of securities analysts, and significant positive with securities analysts＇ disagreement. Finally, this article puts forward some measures in order to improve the accuracy of Chinese securities analysts＇ forecasts.

关 键 词：证券分析师 价位预测 准确性 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]