中国农村的动态贫困:状态转化与持续——基于中国健康与营养调查微观数据的生存分析  

Dynamic Poverty of Rural Areas in China:Condition Transformation and Durability——Based on Survival Analysis on Micro-data of Health and Nutrition Survey in China

作　　者：叶初升[1] 赵锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心/经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期42-52,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"农村扶贫政策绩效评价及其动态瞄准机制设计"(70873088)

摘　　要：利用1989-2009年中国健康与营养调查数据,通过生存分析研究家户贫困或非贫困状态的转变,以及转变发生前,初始状态的持续期限对这种转变的影响。结果表明:家户陷入贫困与脱离贫困的过程以非对称的比例同时存在,持续贫困或持续非贫困的时间长度对贫困状态转换的影响,因选择绝对贫困线或相对贫困线而呈现不同的变动趋势。而且,就贫困动态变化而言,尽管从绝对贫困理念看,贫困家户具有很大的向上流动的可能性,但从相对贫困的视角看时,却发现贫困表现出持续性特征,从而揭示了社会阶层的固化趋势。Based on survey data of China＇s health and nutrition between 1989 and 2009,this paper studies the transformation of household poverty and non-poverty state as well as the impact of durability on such transformation with the help of survival analysis.The result shows that household＇s getting into poverty and emerging from poverty coexist in an asymmetric proportion,the influence of time span of continued poverty and continued non-poverty on transformation of poverty state shows different changing trend because of the different choice of absolute poverty line and relative poverty line.In addition,as for the change of poverty,poor households possess the flow-up possibility from the perspective of absolute poverty.However,from the perspective of relative poverty,poverty demonstrates continuous quality.Consequently,solidified tendency of social class is revealed in this paper.

关 键 词：贫困动态 生存分析 绝对贫困 相对贫困 农村贫困人口 农村扶贫 

分 类 号：F303[经济管理—产业经济]