农产品产业链纵向价格传导机制研究  

Study on Vertical Price Transmission of Agricultural Product Industrial Chain

作　　者：魏金义[1] 王伟新[1] 祁春节[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期83-88,共6页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费(CARS-27-07B);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目"中国农产品价格传导及其收益分配机制研究"(20110146110008);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"小农户如何与大市场对接:交易关系及其治理机制研究"(2012MBDX002);国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国鲜活农产品价格形成波动机制与调控政策研究"(12ZD048)

摘　　要：以2003-2012年的农业生产资料价格指数、农产品生产价格指数及农产品零售价格指数为样本,通过建立向量自回归模型及脉冲响应函数分析了农产品产业链纵向价格传导机制。结果表明:农产品产业链纵向价格传导存在长期协整关系,农产品产业链的价格传导主要表现为需求拉动型;短期内农产品产业链上的价格传导过程较为顺畅,但各环节间的价格传导效率存在差异。提出了从短期来看应平抑农产品零售价格以预防农产品价格非正常波动,从长期看应建立农产品价格波动预警体系以提高农产品价格监管的前瞻性和预见性的对策建议。Based on price Index of agricultural means of production,production price index and retail price index of agricultural products between january of 2003 and april of 2012,this paper,using VAR model and impulse response function,analyzes the vertical price transmission mechanism on industrial chain of agricultural products.The result shows that a long-term co-integration relationship exists in vertical price transmission on agricultural industrial chain and the price transmission mechanism is mainly demand pull orientated.The price transmission process is relatively smooth,but differences exist among price transmission efficiency of various links in agricultural industrial chain in a short term.Therefore,this paper puts forward several specific policy suggestions：in the short term,retail price of agricultural products should be stabilized to prevent abnormal fluctuation of agricultural products while in the long term,early warning system of agricultural products price fluctuation should be established to improve the prospect and predictability of agricultural products price supervision.

关 键 词：农产品产业链 农产品价格 纵向价格传导机制 VAR模型 效应分析 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]