基于二元线性模型的铁路货车保有量预测  

Prediction on the Number of Railway Freight Trains Based on Binary Linear Model

作　　者：穆鑫[1] 程学庆[1] 朱永霞[1] 唐远[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《中国铁道科学》2013年第2期113-117,共5页China Railway Science

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2012J008-B)

摘　　要：通过分析我国铁路2005-2011年的运营里程、货运量和货车保有量,建立货车保有量与运营里程和货运量的二元线性关系模型;根据GDP年均增长率与铁路货运量年均增长率存在一定的正相关关系和比例关系,建立一元二次回归模型和弹性系统模型相结合的货运量预测模型;在此基础上预测未来几年我国铁路的货车保有量。预测结果表明,到2015年,我国铁路货车保有量将突破102万辆。结合当前我国铁路基础设施的适应性,建议在既有线上推广运用27t轴重通用货车(C80E型)。Though analyzing railway operation mileage,freight volume and freight train number from the year 2005 to 2011 in China,the binary linear relationship model of railway operation mileage,freight volume and freight train number is established.There is a certain positive correlation relationship and proportional relation between the average annual GDP growth rate and the average annual growth rate of railway freight volume.Accordingly,the freight volume forecasting model is established combining the unitary quadratic regression model and elastic system model.On this basis,the number of railway freight train in future years is predicted.Prediction results show that by the year 2015,the number of railway freight trains will exceed 1.02 million in China.In combination with the adaptability of the current railway infrastructure,it is suggested that the general-purpose freight train with 27 t axle load（C80E type） should be popularized and applied on the existing lines.

关 键 词：货车保有量 预测模型 二元线性回归 大轴重货车 重载运输 

分 类 号：U272[机械工程—车辆工程]