财政政策效应究竟有多大:一个文献综述  

The Effects of Fiscal Policy:A Literature Review

作　　者：王蓓[1] 吕伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年第2期10-20,共11页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：在相关文献的基础上,系统梳理了国内外文献对财政政策效应的理论分析和经验证据分析。研究发现:就美国而言,一个短期的、暂时性的、以赤字来融资的政府购买支出乘数可能在0.6～1.8之间,对于其他国家的证据较少,但财政政策乘数也在1左右变化,很不理想。对中国而言,现有文献表明财政政策乘数效应有限,并且在特殊时期也存在非凯恩斯效应,不能过度依赖传统的凯恩斯政策。Based on relative literatures, the paper systematically reviews the theoretical analysis and empirical evidence analysis of the effects of fiscal policy at home and abroad. The research finds out that a short - term and temporary government purchase expenditure multiplier based on deficit financing in the U.S. is probably with 0. 6 to 1.8. The evidences on other countries are insufficient, but the fiscal policy multipliers are changing around 1, which is not ideal. Existing literatures show that the multiplier effect of fiscal policy is limited in China, and it shows non-Keynesian effects in special periods. Therefore, we cannot over-rely on the traditional Keynesian policy.

关 键 词：财政政策乘数 非凯恩斯效应 财政调整 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]