趋势性冲击、政府消费与中国经济周期波动——基于开放经济RBC模型的比较分析  

Trend Shock,Government Consumption and Business Cycles in China: Comparative Analysis Based on an Open RBC Model

作　　者：祝梓翔[1] 邓翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2013年第3期12-23,共12页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173149/G0301)

摘　　要：趋势冲击是指对于技术增长率的冲击,即技术增长率服从一个随机过程。趋势冲击在新兴市场国家经济周期波动中起着非常重要的作用,由于中国的经济波动特征更为接近新兴市场,因此趋势冲击可能是驱动中国周期波动的重要因素。本文首先构建了一个包含趋势性冲击和暂时性冲击的开放经济RBC模型,模型较好地拟合了中国的大部分经济波动特征;包含政府消费和趋势性冲击的开放经济模型则出现了过度拟合,拟合结果较差。这可能是因为两种冲击存在"叠加效应"。Permanent income theory concludes that household consumption is mainly dependent on the lifetime earnings,and institutional changes are the main factors contribute to the trend variation.The paper first constructed an open economy RBC model including both a trend shock and a transitory shock.The results of the model fit the majority of China＇s business fluctuation characteristics.Impulse response analysis also showed that trend shock can be the dominant factor leading to the high consumption volatility and counter-cyclicality of current account.However,the open economy model with government consumption and trend shock has poor simulating results.Unlike demand shocks and normal supply shocks,trend shock explain the mechanism of business cycles from another perspective.

关 键 词：趋势性冲击 经济周期 新兴市场 随机增长模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]