我国房地产开发商土地竞买是否存在羊群效应  

Does Herding Behavior Exist in China's Land Market?

作　　者：黄静[1] 柯昇沛[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2013年第3期37-45,共9页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71103121);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2011EJL002);中国博士后科学基金项目(2011M500058;2012T50385);上海市教委科研创新项目(13YS044);上海市高校青年教师培养资助计划(shsf002)

摘　　要：利用面板计量方法,从土地交易价格和交易量两个维度,对房地产开发商土地竞买过程是否存在显著的羊群效应进行检验和分析,其结果:(1)我国城市土地市场中,不论土地价格上涨还是下跌,不论成交量较大还是成交量较小,开发商土地竞买皆不存在明显的羊群效应。(2)在房价增幅下降时期,开发商对市场的观望情绪具有一定的传染性。(3)土地拍卖制度实施前,全国各大城市土地价格波动存在更强的集簇性;土地拍卖制度实施后,市场竞争性加强,各城市土地价格波动更能反映当地房地产市场情况。The Purpose of the paper is to analyze whether there is exist herding behavior when the real estate developer bid land.The panel econometric analysis method is employed.We can draw some conclusions.Firstly,the herd behavior hasn＇t being significantly exist in China＇s land market in these years,whenever the land price was higher or lower,and whenever the quantity of land transactions was more or less.Secondly,in the fall period of the housing price growth,the wait-and-see mood of developers has certain infectious.Thirdly,after the implementation of the land auction system,the strengthening of market competition,the urban land price fluctuations is to better reflect the local real estate market conditions.

关 键 词：土地竞买 房地产开发商 羊群效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]