Prediction of wintertime heavy snow activity in Northeast China  

作　　者：FAN Ke TIAN BaoQiang 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2013年第12期1420-1426,共7页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421406);the Knowledge Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-QN202);Strategic Technological Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05090426)

摘　　要：In Northeast China during the winter, severe snowstorms can occur resulting in both societal and economic damage. In this paper, we explore an effective technique for the seasonal prediction of heavy snow activity, where previous synoptic studies have failed. We employ a year-to-year increment approach and ultimately identify four predictors, x1 to x4 . x1 is the area-averaged soil moisture over the northern part of Northeast China in the preceding month of September and represents the role of land processes. x2 represents the role of sea-air interactions in winter, x3 the preceding summer Mascarene High related to the winter SST over the tropical western Pacific, and x4 is the low-level the thermal condition over Northeast China from the previous year that oppose current year. Cross-validation tests for both 1963-2011 and independent hindcasts between 1983-2010 are performed to validate the prediction ability of our technique. The cross validation test results for 1963-2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.86 (0.77) between the predicted and observed year-to-year increment of the number of snow days. The model also predicts well the independent hindcast for the years 1983-2011. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction model for Northeast China's heavy snow activities and thus requires preliminary application in operational settings.In Northeast China during the winter, severe snowstorms can occur resulting in both societal and economic damage. In this paper, we explore an effective technique for the seasonal prediction of heavy snow activity, where previous synoptic studies have failed. We employ a year-to-year increment approach and ultimately identify four predictors,X1 to X4. X1 is the area-averaged soil moisture over the northern part of Northeast China in the preceding month of September and represents the role of land processes, X2 represents the role of sea-air interactions in winter, X3 the preceding summer Mascarene High related to the winter SST over the tropical western Pacific, and X4 is the low-level the thermal condition over Northeast China from the previous year that oppose current year. Cross-validation tests for both 1963-2011 and independent hindcasts between 1983-2010 are performed to validate the prediction ability of our technique. The cross validation test results for 1963-2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.86 （0.77） between the predicted and observed year-to-year increment of the number of snow days. The model also predicts well the independent hindcast for the years 1983-2011. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction model for Northeast China＇ s heavy snow activities and thus requires preliminary application in operational settings.

关 键 词：中国东北地区 预测能力 大雪 冬季 气候预测模型 马斯克林高压 测试验证 交叉验证 

分 类 号：P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]