East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models  

作　　者：JIANG DaBang TIAN ZhiPing 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences [4]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2013年第12期1427-1435,共9页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421407);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41175072)

摘　　要：Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north- west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter （December-February） and summer （June- August） monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens （strengthens） north （south） of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21 st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风 季风变化 气候模型 东北亚地区 北太平洋 阿留申低压 海平面气压 夏季风 

分 类 号：P425.42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P532