Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models  

作　　者：CHEN HuoPo 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2013年第12期1462-1472,共11页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955401);the "Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05090306);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275075);the CAS-CSIRO Cooperative Research Program (GJHZ1223)

摘　　要：Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios.Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase （CMIP5） simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios.

关 键 词：中国西北地区 预计 事件 降雨 大气环流模式 模型 未来气候变化 年降水量 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]